This week brings the moment the whole industry has been waiting for: the launch of the DCnU.
Wednesday brings the last issue of Flashpoint as well as the first issue of Justice League from Geoff Johns and Jim Lee, and the beginning of a whole new era of DC Comics that could be a boon or a bastion for the industry. As it stands now, pre-orders are looking strong with Justice League looking at an over 200,000 sales number and six other titles looking to surpass six figures.
But we knew that this reboot would be top heavy, as DC made sure to put top creative teams on their biggest books. That much has paid off so far. But how will the rest of the books pan out and how is fan interest shifting?
Comic Book Resources took a look at that this week, with a second poll of fans asking their interest in the rebooted and newly launched books of the DCU. Their first poll on June 15th gave us a good look at initial interest, but this new poll put us in a position to begin tracking where fan interest is going. For Multiversity 101 this week, I’m going to dig deeper into those numbers, which you can find after the jump.
Also, as CBR points out themselves, none of this is scientific by any means. It’s just fun with numbers!
Before we get into shifts or into the details that fall more into the heavily theoretical side, let’s take a look at the books that in the new poll are the most likely to be purchased and the least likely — or in their poll, the ones that are notated as “Absolutely” and “Not At All.”
On the “Absolutely” side, Justice League continues to be the strongest book, with 66.4% of the 4,948 respondents saying that they will absolutely be purchasing this vaunted premiere issue (of course, that number is more like 100% if you look at total readers and factor in those who will illegally download it).
Following that book, you’ve got more of the usual suspects, as the Grant Morrison led Action Comics #1 has 61.1% at Absolutely, 58% for Snyder and Capullo’s Batman, and then a steep drop to 44% for Johns and Mahnke’s Green Lantern book.
For the diametrically opposite side, you’ve got a group that is also easy to predict in its lack of fan interest. The Not At All all-stars are led by OMAC #1 as fronted by everyone’s favorite Dan Didio, closely followed by Hawk & Dove #1 from the as-beloved-as-Didio Rob Liefeld and Sterling Gates at 64.5%, Sgt. Rock and the Men of War from Ivan Brandon and Tom Derenick at 62.7%, and Joshua Fialkov and Andrea Sorrentino’s I, Vampire at 62.4%.
Really, there isn’t a lot to be surprised by here. The books that everyone thought would draw fan interest are drawing fan interest, and the ones that were expected to bomb look like they probably will.
That said, one point of concern for DC is an aforementioned one: the lack of depth. While there are two books that receive over 60% on the positive side of things, there are seven books over 60% on the negative and 11 Not At All books that surpass 55% vs. three Absolutely books.
The idea that the number of books at launch is somehow tied to the overall story of this reboot is probably true, because it seems unlikely that DC thought launching 52 books simultaneously was a good idea from a business standpoint. Realistically, if you’re going to launch that many, you’re probably better off doing it in waves. But that isn’t what we’re looking at here, so let’s move on.
Positive vs. Negative
As for looking at this exercise from just the perspective of the poles (Absolutely vs. Not At All), I’m not sure that is not a good representation of what the buy rate would be. After all, comic fans are a notoriously fickle bunch, as well as people who can be easily convinced to purchase a book if positive word of mouth surrounds it.
Continued belowSo instead of looking at just those poles, let’s talk about which books have the highest percentage of positivity versus negativity by lumping the three positives into one category and the two negatives into one as well. That creates two new categories, of which I will call “Buy” and “Burn.”
For the Buy side, what this reveals is that, while the top four remains unchanged, a lot of books have significant support in the middle positives. Some books like JH Williams III, Haden Blackman and Amy Reeder’s Batwoman find almost all of their readers who might buy WILL buy, with 38% of their support coming from “absolutely” and only 20.3% coming from the middle categories.
But many books are the opposite, as readers approach them leaning towards buying but with much trepidation. Readers, including myself, look at Brian Azzarello and Cliff Chiang’s Wonder Woman as a book that should be good but are likely concerned with the constantly changing nature of the character. Thus, it only brings in 33.2% at the absolutely level. However, it manages to outdistance Batwoman when you only look at positives, as 25.8% of respondents said they will “very likely” or “likely” purchase the book.
Other books that fall into that category include Peter Milligan and Mikel Janin’s Justice League Dark (ranks 11th in Absolutely but 10th in Buy ratings), Jeff Lemire and Travel Foreman’s Animal Man (ranks 20th in Absolutely but 18th in Buy), Paul Jenkins and Bernard Chang’s DC Universe Presents (35th in Absolutely and 28th – !! — in Buy).
On the other end of the spectrum, a book like Josh Fialkov’s I, Vampire looks like a lock for something to tank, except that the middle portions favor at least a little morbid curiosity in the book (it ranks 4th in Not At All, but 7th in Burn rating). I think that is tied to the fact that Fialkov is the type of writer who has earned enough credo to support that this book, however overdone the vampire realm may be, could be good.
Other books that tilt a bit better than their poles suggest include Nathan Edmondson and Cafu’s Grifter (12th in Not At All, 13th in Burn) and Frankenstein: Agent of Shade from Jeff Lemire and Alberto Ponticelli (23rd in Not At All, 26th in Burn).
Just like with I, Vampire, those books seem to be getting a little more push towards “maybe I’ll buy it” levels simply because the advancing reputations of their creators.
All of this, to me, means that some books could be setting themselves up as surprising top-line sellers while others could be sleeper hits. Personally, I’ve been looking at I, Vampire, Grifter and Frankenstein to be potential underground (for DC at least) hits from the get go, and it seems like public sentiments are swinging towards that idea being reality.
Yesterday vs. Today
When you look at this most recent poll from CBR, I think the most interesting data you can get from it isn’t necessarily what it says individually, but what it says when put in context by the previous poll from June 15th.
While you can easily write-off some of the shifts by simply saying “the results are different because the people who voted in the first poll are not necessarily the same as the second poll,” and you would be right, I still think the results are fascinating.
Particularly, in the “Burn” rating shifts.
The ones that stand out the most are ALL of the Green Lantern books. Whether it is the effect of the reviled film bringing them down (the film came out two days after the first poll), the perceived downturn in quality of the books themselves, or just some sort of statistical variance caused by the different audience, I’m unsure, but I am sure of one thing: poll-to-poll, the GL books suffered.
The flagship titles were the ones that suffered the most, as Johns and Mahnke’s Green Lantern and Tomasi and Pasarin’s Green Lantern Corps led all comers with an increase of 4.1% and 4% in Burn rating.
Continued belowNot far behind was Peter Milligan’s Red Lantern book at #4, with its Burn rating increasing by 3.1%, while Green Lantern: The New Guardians from Tony Bedard and Tyler Kirkham finishing 8th with a 2.2% increase.
Not long ago, Green Lantern was the top selling DC book and the rest of the GL books were guaranteed top sellers as well. Now? Based off this (admittedly inexact) poll, they’re trending downwards.
On the other end of the spectrum, the book that increased most in Buy rating poll-to-poll was — I bet you can guess given my hype so far — Josh Fialkov’s I, Vampire, easily winning this campaign by increasing its Buy rating 6.6%.
For a quick anecdote about the ascending belief in this book, I have an example from my 4 Color News and Brews co-host Brandon Burpee. Throughout this whole DCnU endeavor, Brandon has insisted that I, Vampire looks ridiculous. But as time passes, his opinion has changed, as he now says the art is very attractive and MAYBE it could be good. While that isn’t quite a ringing endorsement, he has suggested that he’ll likely check it out digitally at launch if he hears good things.
And that is a long way from trashing it somewhat openly.
The other books that have seen an impressive lift in Buy rating include Stormwatch (up 5.1%), Batman (up 4.7%), Grifter (up 4.2%), Justice League Dark (up 4%), and All-Star Western (up 4%).
The exciting thing about that list is that these are all books that are tied to creators whose stars have been on the rise, or ones who have long been known for pushing the conventions of the medium. As more information has come out about their books, readers are seeing that DC is really unleashing them and letting them put a little of their style and panache into the stories. Faith is increasing in the quality of these books.
Perhaps even more exciting for DC is the fact that the overall percentage of Buy ratings increase (total Buy rating increase minus Burn Rating increase) is 37.1%, which is pretty massive when you think about it.
As we approach the DCnU launch, it looks like excitement and positivity is increasing dramatically, especially in the sleeper books.
What Does It All Mean?
Simply put, this all could mean nothing. It’s an informal straw poll — a cool exercise by CBR, but perhaps not much more.
But I think it is a bit more accurate than it has any right to be. For the books that are increasing in potential buys and those that are decreasing, you can attribute logical ties to their results. You can see why readers’ faith is increasing or decreasing, and here is hoping there is some correspondence between increasingly positive poll results and increasing sales.
Because whether or not Marvel or industry pundits would want to admit it, the DCnU launch being a success would be good for the entire industry.
